Business as usual


This post examines the scenarios and pathways used over the years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to represent possible future emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature changes. In particular, it seeks to determine which, if any, of the current Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) can be regarded as “business as usual” for the purposes of estimating the consequences of taking no mitigating action against climate change.

Back in January, fellow CCNF columnist and Texas A&M University colleague Andrew Dessler used the RCP8.5 projections as an estimate of what “unchecked” emissions would do to the climate, in his written testimony to the Senate . I conclude below that this is a slight overestimate, and that (fortunately for us) lack of action probably wouldn’t lead to quite so large an impact. The central estimate I get from what the IPCC uses for business-as-usual emission scenarios and the IPCC uncertainty for climate sensitivity is a rise of 3.0 C over the present century.

The report from IPCC Assessment Report #5 (AR5) Working Group II (WGII) provides the background (citations omitted and paragraph breaks added for readability):

“A scenario is a story line or image that describes a potential future, developed to inform decision-making under uncertainty.

“Scenarios have been part of IPCC future climate projections since the [ First Assessment Report] (1990) , where WGIII generated four scenarios (Bau = business-as-usual, B, C, and D) used by WGI to project climate change.“The IPCC Supplementary Report (IPCC, 1992) , a joint effort of WG1 and WGIII, defined six new scenarios (IS92a-f) used in the [Second Assessment Report] (1996). ”

Note: Five of those six IS92 scenarios were business-as-usual scenarios, assuming no new control measures to counteract climate change. They varied mainly in their assumptions regarding population growth, cheap fossil fuel availability, economic growth, and technological changes. Two were higher than the central IS92a scenario, while two were lower. The sixth, IS92b, assumed that countries would follow through on their pledges to reduce greenhouse gases.

by Margaret Heffernan
In this powerful manifesto for for CEOs and managers alike, Heffernan looks back over decades spent overseeing different organizations and comes to a counterintuitive conclusion: it's the small shifts that have the greatest impact. Buy now

If you want to get even more from TED, like the ability to save talks to watch later,  sign up for a TED account now .

This post examines the scenarios and pathways used over the years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to represent possible future emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature changes. In particular, it seeks to determine which, if any, of the current Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) can be regarded as “business as usual” for the purposes of estimating the consequences of taking no mitigating action against climate change.

Back in January, fellow CCNF columnist and Texas A&M University colleague Andrew Dessler used the RCP8.5 projections as an estimate of what “unchecked” emissions would do to the climate, in his written testimony to the Senate . I conclude below that this is a slight overestimate, and that (fortunately for us) lack of action probably wouldn’t lead to quite so large an impact. The central estimate I get from what the IPCC uses for business-as-usual emission scenarios and the IPCC uncertainty for climate sensitivity is a rise of 3.0 C over the present century.

The report from IPCC Assessment Report #5 (AR5) Working Group II (WGII) provides the background (citations omitted and paragraph breaks added for readability):

“A scenario is a story line or image that describes a potential future, developed to inform decision-making under uncertainty.

“Scenarios have been part of IPCC future climate projections since the [ First Assessment Report] (1990) , where WGIII generated four scenarios (Bau = business-as-usual, B, C, and D) used by WGI to project climate change.“The IPCC Supplementary Report (IPCC, 1992) , a joint effort of WG1 and WGIII, defined six new scenarios (IS92a-f) used in the [Second Assessment Report] (1996). ”

Note: Five of those six IS92 scenarios were business-as-usual scenarios, assuming no new control measures to counteract climate change. They varied mainly in their assumptions regarding population growth, cheap fossil fuel availability, economic growth, and technological changes. Two were higher than the central IS92a scenario, while two were lower. The sixth, IS92b, assumed that countries would follow through on their pledges to reduce greenhouse gases.

by Margaret Heffernan
In this powerful manifesto for for CEOs and managers alike, Heffernan looks back over decades spent overseeing different organizations and comes to a counterintuitive conclusion: it's the small shifts that have the greatest impact. Buy now

If you want to get even more from TED, like the ability to save talks to watch later,  sign up for a TED account now .

For six years Prevention First has guided our work, changing our relationships with our communities for the better and helping make New Zealand a safer place to live, work and visit.

Now our operating model has been refreshed to ensure it continues to serve the needs of New Zealanders and their Police. 

“When we launched Prevention First in 2011 it was a new way of working, placing victims at the centre of what we do and informing all our work,” says Assistant Commissioner Bill Searle.

“Police has always had a role in preventing harm in our communities but Prevention First made it our priority - and it remains our national operating model, aiming to prevent harm before it happens.

“Prevention First 2017 is about how we can build on the positive change of the past six years and mature our understanding of what ‘prevention’ is: to ensure we take every opportunity to prevent harm."

Where Prevention First placed victims at the centre of policing, the new evolution puts people more generally – victims, offenders and Police staff - at the centre.

This post examines the scenarios and pathways used over the years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to represent possible future emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature changes. In particular, it seeks to determine which, if any, of the current Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) can be regarded as “business as usual” for the purposes of estimating the consequences of taking no mitigating action against climate change.

Back in January, fellow CCNF columnist and Texas A&M University colleague Andrew Dessler used the RCP8.5 projections as an estimate of what “unchecked” emissions would do to the climate, in his written testimony to the Senate . I conclude below that this is a slight overestimate, and that (fortunately for us) lack of action probably wouldn’t lead to quite so large an impact. The central estimate I get from what the IPCC uses for business-as-usual emission scenarios and the IPCC uncertainty for climate sensitivity is a rise of 3.0 C over the present century.

The report from IPCC Assessment Report #5 (AR5) Working Group II (WGII) provides the background (citations omitted and paragraph breaks added for readability):

“A scenario is a story line or image that describes a potential future, developed to inform decision-making under uncertainty.

“Scenarios have been part of IPCC future climate projections since the [ First Assessment Report] (1990) , where WGIII generated four scenarios (Bau = business-as-usual, B, C, and D) used by WGI to project climate change.“The IPCC Supplementary Report (IPCC, 1992) , a joint effort of WG1 and WGIII, defined six new scenarios (IS92a-f) used in the [Second Assessment Report] (1996). ”

Note: Five of those six IS92 scenarios were business-as-usual scenarios, assuming no new control measures to counteract climate change. They varied mainly in their assumptions regarding population growth, cheap fossil fuel availability, economic growth, and technological changes. Two were higher than the central IS92a scenario, while two were lower. The sixth, IS92b, assumed that countries would follow through on their pledges to reduce greenhouse gases.


Business as Usual (Men at Work album) - Wikipedia

Business As Usual - Business Continuity Planning - BCM.

    This post examines the scenarios and pathways used over the years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to represent possible future emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature changes. In particular, it seeks to determine
51Q6mdRuO4L